MacNeil: My Brexit Times with Truss, Badenoch and Fox
Where did Brexit originate? Some might say the seeds were planted after 2008 “Crash” when Labour and then, after the 2010 election, the Tories in the shape of their Chancellor, George Osborne, grabbed austerity with the glee of a maniac on a moral mission to make life tough for people – on that he succeeded.
Some would say it was rooted in English exceptionalism, who with the hangover of empire, could not contemplate partners and who weirdly saw England/Island of Britain outside Europe.
The austerity and cuts combined gave rise to stagnant or falling living standards. That dissatisfaction was fertile ground for snake oil arguments and £350 million on the side of a bus.
Brexit certainly affected my time in Westminster. I was the only ever Commons Chair of the International Trade Committee, set up by the House of Commons, to scrutinise the Department of International Trade set up by Theresa May.
Setting up such a department was a sign that things were getting tricky for the UK. An associated error was May’s abolishing the Department of Energy, so that Government would not seem bloated. At the time Alex Salmond quipped some words to the effect, “They are always taking their eye off energy and abolishing the Department, only to realise how important it is in a few years’ time – It will be back in a decade or so”
He was right, of course, losing up to 5% of GDP, which is what Brexit costs, was to be masked by making Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), which Boris always referred to as “Trade Deals”. Funny thing about FTAs is that they were nowhere near as free, as being in the EU Single Market, which was the freest and easiest of trade that there was.
When I crossed swords with then Trade Secretary, Liz Truss, who frequently told us about the unique trade fortunes to be earned selling cheese in Free Trade Agreements, across the world, it was that 5 % loss of GDP statistic that made her cross. The point was that FTA’s if achieved with every country in the world would only yield about 0.8% of GDP. Brexit was a long way for a non-existent short cut
Brexit pleased Liam Fox he told us that it regained UK sovereignty, while failing to admit or recognise that signing a Free Trade Agreement would then cede parts of that very minor sovereignty. Or indeed that the people who now had most power over UK trade were the bogeyman of the Brexiteers – the EU bureaucrats. Fact is the UK can now no longer export to the EU without satisfying a bureaucrat with paper. Indeed, that UK cannot trade with anyone without bureaucracy of FTAs or tariffs.
Badenoch tried to ignore reality and proclaimed she wasn’t interested in dry statistics. The statistic she maybe should have put on a bus, is that Brexit costs £44billion a year in lost tax revenue for the UK – that is what 5% GDP loss means in money to spend for society.
So, the austerity and cuts were the likely midwives of Brexit. Now Brexit itself has become the midwife to a new range of cuts. Rachel Reeves takes pensioners winter fuel money rather than tackle the real problem Brexit. As a result, Labour MPs, newly elected in Scotland, have voted to take more money away from their constituencies than Brexit removed in structural funds to plug the big gaps in Westminster tax take. They don’t tackle the obvious sore thumb - Brexit.
Where will this spiral of despair go, given the truth and best governance has not been followed from 2008 it is likely that it will get worse still. Scotland will have twice the child poverty of our Nordic neighbours. Not to worry though, John Swinney is hoping that those high Scottish figures will be the lowest in the UK in 5 years’ time. Yes, Scotland in the UK in 5 years’ time is the implication from the SNP leader.
It is usually at this point that every moron’s moronic argument enters stage left, in the shape of – “If leaving the EU was bad then leaving the UK will be worse.” Of course, being moronic, it fails to note that leaving a trade block is not the same as moving political decision making to different locations in the that trade block. Unlike the UK, the EU didn’t need to be a centralised state, its members are all at the UN not so with the UK. The concrete example the moronic ignore, are the Celt brethren in Ireland.
Where is Brexit going – that is hard to project, one thing is certain the electorate in the UK is volatile. For years now, that electorate that doesn’t live in Scotland, has been taking Scotland in a direction that is not of Scotland’s choosing. That could be stopped. However, those currently entrusted with the power at Holyrood from the people to do something about it, choose not to. Having targets to be in the UK in 5 years’ time, makes the SNP unworthy of the predictable support of the pro independence voter.
The pro-independence voter has yet to decide if loyalty to a party or independence is more important. A better Scotland needs independence, not 5 more years of UK from the SNP leadership.
