Kenny MacAskill: Where’s the excitement about the Scottish independence polling?

INDEPENDENCE is ahead in the polls and the Holyrood election looks set to produce a pro-Yes majority – what’s not to like? Had we entered 2014 in this position, the atmosphere would have been febrile. A campaign already getting into gear would have gone into overdrive.

But where’s the anticipation, motivation or even excitement now? Banner headlines were met with a shrug and have all too quickly slipped from memory. The rank and file welcomed the news as you’d expect but there has been total inaction from the Scottish Government.

That is really quite astonishing, especially for those of us in the movement who recall the grim years when the dream was simply that. The Scottish Parliament isn’t its fulfilment but is the powerbase from which independence can come.

As Michael Collins said of the Irish Free State: “It gives us freedom, not the ultimate freedom that all nations desire and develop to, but the freedom to achieve it.”

Ironically, as we approach 27 years since the re-establishment of the Scottish Parliament, it was 27 years later, in 1949 that Ireland became a republic. Maybe there’s a lesson there for Scotland about it being time to move on and using the base which you have to do so.

Are the polls wrong and just too good to be true? There’s no evidence of that and no reason to doubt the accuracy of the sampling. It’s not a flash in the pan or a rogue poll sampled during festivities.

Instead, similar results to those of The National’s poll from Find Out Now have been seen elsewhere. The Unionist reaction has been sullen acceptance rather than outrage.

So folk aren’t questioning the polls, instead it’s a shrug of the shoulders and it’s good to hear but so what?

The reason for that is that people know that nothing is going to happen. Aye, independence is ahead and likely will come quicker as Reform UK ramp up south of the Border. But for now John Swinney will politely ask Keir Starmer – or perhaps his successor – for a second independence referendum.

And just as his predecessors did on asking May, Johnson, Truss et al, he’ll be told coldly to know yer place, Jock, it just ain’t happening.

So why get excited about something that just isn’t going to happen? Let’s instead concentrate on the dream of Scotland winning the World Cup, which has more chance of success and will be more fun as well.

If there was any likelihood of a referendum happening, the SNP leadership would have been ramping up the action, not taking a festive break. The civil service would be getting galvanised, as it was in 2014 and other steps would be getting taken in preparation.

But instead there’s precisely nothing. How can independence supporters be expected to believe the rhetoric when the reality is so pathetic.

No wonder the gap between voting SNP and supporting independence is growing and that many activists rightly fear that many Yes voters will simply stay at home in May. That’s also a dangerous game to play.

It took the referendum to rouse many to vote at all, as it was something they’d previously scorned or viewed as a waste of time and effort. Turn them off voting and it may not be as easy to turn them on again when its needed.

The SNP are playing not just the wrong game but a dangerous one. Of course, if things pan out as the polls predict they’ll be happy to form another administration whether as a minority or in coalition.

With many senior figures stepping down, there will be a host of newbie MSPs and new Cabinet secretaries all eager and excited at their election.

But what of the cause they are supposed to be dedicated to? “Ah well, we tried but what can we do,” will be the response. “We’ll keep trying and we just need to keep the polls high, and things will turn,” they’ll keep saying.

“The prime minister [whoever he or she might be] will be bound to blink,” we’ll also again be told.

But nothing will be done, the deindustrialisation of our land will continue and contempt for politics and politicians will grow – all as the world becomes a scarier place and being in charge of your own destiny ever more essential.

But it need not be this way. The polls show the support is there. The Supreme Court confirmed what can be done even though the referendum route is closed off.

What is needed is leadership and strategy. The latter has to be a plebiscite election. It’s still not too late for the SNP to listen to the many wise old heads who have been calling for it.

In 1948, the Irish Free State parliament took the next step, delivering the republic the following year, honouring those who had sought that dream throughout centuries and using the base won a generation before. It’s time for Scotland to do likewise.

[This article was first published in The National on Monday 5th of January 2026]